LONDON: The Sino-Soviet split was a critical moment in the cold war. A Sino-Indian split could be just as crucial to the “second cold war” that seems to be developing between the US and China.
Until now, the Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has tried to avoid choosing sides in the fast-developing antagonism between Washington and Beijing.
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But a parting of the ways between India and China now seems inevitable following last weeks border clashes between the two nations armies, which left at least 20 Indian soldiers dead and an unknown number of Chinese casualties.
READ: China likely lost at least 40 soldiers in border clash: Indian minister
Mr Modi has met President Xi Jinping of China several times since becoming Indias leader in 2014 and has made five visits there.
As recently as last October, the Indian and Chinese leaders held a friendly summit, after which Mr Modi hailed “a new era of co-operation between our two countries”.
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The mood in New Delhi is now very different. Whatever happened high up in the Himalayas, Indians feel assaulted and humiliated by China.
On Friday, Mr Modi held emergency meetings with leaders of the Indian opposition – a remarkable development in itself, given the extreme partisanship of Indian politics today.
READ: Commentary: China's boundary skirmishes with India have wider economic and geopolitical implications
CHINA HAWKS AND DOVES
There is now near-consensus in the Indian policymaking elite that China is a hostile power and that Indias only feasible response is to move closer to the US and to Asian democracies, such as Japan and Australia.
Despite Mr Modis efforts to build a close relationship with Mr Xi, Indian anxiety about the rise of China has been growing for years. Indians have watched nervously as China has built up a special relationship with Pakistan – a country India has fought multiple wars with.
Armed encounters are frequent in the Himalayan region disputed by India and Pakistan AFP/TAUSEEF MUSTAFA
The expansion of Chinese influence in neighbouring states such as Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Nepal has also gone down badly in New Delhi. India signalled its displeasure by refusing to send a top-level delegation to Chinas Belt and Road forums in 2017 and 2019.
But while the China hawks in New Delhi have been gaining in influence, there remains a dovish school that has long argued it is not in Indias interests to get sucked into an American effort to “contain” China.
In part, this reflects the legacy of history. During the original cold war, India pursued a policy of non-alignment and was, in reality, often closer to Moscow than Washington.
As a country of nearly 1.4 billion people, India is understandably determined to forge its own path and maintain strategic autonomy. There are also sound economic arguments for trying to maintain a good relationship with China, which is Indias second largest trading partner.
READ: Commentary: Is this the end of Chinas peaceful rise?
READ: Commentary: The clash with China is Indias biggest test
AN ALLIANCE WITH THE US?
Any thought of trying to maintain equidistance between the US and China, is now likely to be abandoned by India. There are even hints that India may consider a formal alliance with the US.
One Indian intellectual, close to the Modi government, observed pointedly last week that one reason China might feel free to kill Indian soldiers – but not Japanese or Taiwanese troops – is that Japan and Taiwan are sheltering under a US security umbrella.
Donald Trumps hostility to the American alliance system makes it highly unlikely that the US president would consider extending a security guarantee to India, at least, not without considerable financial inducement.
But an administration led by Joe Biden, his Democratic rival in Novembers presidential elections, might well jump at the idea of a formal alliance.
Democratic US presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event at a community center in Darby, Pennsylvania, US, Jun 17, 2020. (Photo: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst)
In recent years the US has become more overt in its efforts to woo India, as a balancing force to a rising China. In 2018, the US military renamed its Pacific command, the Indo-Pacific command and Indias increasingly close military ties with the US has been reflected in arRead More – Source
LONDON: The Sino-Soviet split was a critical moment in the cold war. A Sino-Indian split could be just as crucial to the “second cold war” that seems to be developing between the US and China.
Until now, the Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has tried to avoid choosing sides in the fast-developing antagonism between Washington and Beijing.
Advertisement
Advertisement
But a parting of the ways between India and China now seems inevitable following last weeks border clashes between the two nations armies, which left at least 20 Indian soldiers dead and an unknown number of Chinese casualties.
READ: China likely lost at least 40 soldiers in border clash: Indian minister
Mr Modi has met President Xi Jinping of China several times since becoming Indias leader in 2014 and has made five visits there.
As recently as last October, the Indian and Chinese leaders held a friendly summit, after which Mr Modi hailed “a new era of co-operation between our two countries”.
Advertisement
Advertisement
The mood in New Delhi is now very different. Whatever happened high up in the Himalayas, Indians feel assaulted and humiliated by China.
On Friday, Mr Modi held emergency meetings with leaders of the Indian opposition – a remarkable development in itself, given the extreme partisanship of Indian politics today.
READ: Commentary: China's boundary skirmishes with India have wider economic and geopolitical implications
CHINA HAWKS AND DOVES
There is now near-consensus in the Indian policymaking elite that China is a hostile power and that Indias only feasible response is to move closer to the US and to Asian democracies, such as Japan and Australia.
Despite Mr Modis efforts to build a close relationship with Mr Xi, Indian anxiety about the rise of China has been growing for years. Indians have watched nervously as China has built up a special relationship with Pakistan – a country India has fought multiple wars with.
Armed encounters are frequent in the Himalayan region disputed by India and Pakistan AFP/TAUSEEF MUSTAFA
The expansion of Chinese influence in neighbouring states such as Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Nepal has also gone down badly in New Delhi. India signalled its displeasure by refusing to send a top-level delegation to Chinas Belt and Road forums in 2017 and 2019.
But while the China hawks in New Delhi have been gaining in influence, there remains a dovish school that has long argued it is not in Indias interests to get sucked into an American effort to “contain” China.
In part, this reflects the legacy of history. During the original cold war, India pursued a policy of non-alignment and was, in reality, often closer to Moscow than Washington.
As a country of nearly 1.4 billion people, India is understandably determined to forge its own path and maintain strategic autonomy. There are also sound economic arguments for trying to maintain a good relationship with China, which is Indias second largest trading partner.
READ: Commentary: Is this the end of Chinas peaceful rise?
READ: Commentary: The clash with China is Indias biggest test
AN ALLIANCE WITH THE US?
Any thought of trying to maintain equidistance between the US and China, is now likely to be abandoned by India. There are even hints that India may consider a formal alliance with the US.
One Indian intellectual, close to the Modi government, observed pointedly last week that one reason China might feel free to kill Indian soldiers – but not Japanese or Taiwanese troops – is that Japan and Taiwan are sheltering under a US security umbrella.
Donald Trumps hostility to the American alliance system makes it highly unlikely that the US president would consider extending a security guarantee to India, at least, not without considerable financial inducement.
But an administration led by Joe Biden, his Democratic rival in Novembers presidential elections, might well jump at the idea of a formal alliance.
Democratic US presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event at a community center in Darby, Pennsylvania, US, Jun 17, 2020. (Photo: Reuters/Jonathan Ernst)
In recent years the US has become more overt in its efforts to woo India, as a balancing force to a rising China. In 2018, the US military renamed its Pacific command, the Indo-Pacific command and Indias increasingly close military ties with the US has been reflected in arRead More – Source
