Coronavirus is likely coming to a respiratory tract near you. This could turn out to be a catastrophe — or an inconvenience.
The coronavirus outbreak reached a turning point this week after two straight days in which reported new cases outside China exceeded those originating from the epicenter. “Our greatest concern,” said World Health Organization boss Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Thursday, is “whats happening in the rest of the world.”
The worlds top public health authorities insist the virus can still be contained with diligent bouts of expert whack-a-mole. But political leaders are increasingly talking about an inevitable pandemic.
The growing realization that the highly contagious virus comes with few symptoms for most is creating an uncomfortable question: Do we pull out all stops to contain it — saving lives but crippling the economy — or accept this as Flu 2.0, a winter cold that irritates many but kills only a few, mainly the old and the weak?
In a speech meant to reassure the American public, U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly expressed awe at the U.S. death toll from the regular old flu: 25,000 to 69,000 a year.
“Now its beginning to become clear that maybe up to 80 or 85 percent of infections are very mild, like the common cold” — David Heymann, epidemiologist
“It was shocking to me,” Trump said.
Flu kills up to 650,000 people each year worldwide. Yet this annual scourge prompts none of the disruption of coronavirus. Along with more than 2,800 COVID-19 deaths as of Friday morning, fears about coronavirus have frozen a Chinese province of nearly 60 million; caused a historic stock market slide; and canceled carnival festivities from Brazil to Greece — and the hajj could be next.
“This virus is not influenza,” Tedros told reporters Thursday. “With the right measures, it can be contained.”
But there are increasing signs those measures are failing. German Health Minister Jens Spahn warned of an epidemic on Wednesday when he acknowledged that his country has lost track of how people got infected — making it impossible to curtail the spread with quarantines. A woman in the U.S. state of California who had no close contact with people whod traveled abroad was diagnosed on Wednesday. In Italy, which is coping with one of the worlds largest outbreaks outside China along with Iran and South Korea, officials still havent traced the “patient 0.”
An Italian Carabinieri officer, wearing a respiratory mask, talks to a driver at a road block in Guardamiglio, Italy | Emanuele Cremaschi/Getty Images
“The risk of a global pandemic is very much upon us,” said Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Thursday. French President Emmanuel Macron warned a “crisis” is coming.
Trump, by contrast, insisted the virus spread is “not inevitable.” But he was contradicting an official from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who said a day earlier that its not a question of if but when — and of how many people will have severe symptoms.
And despite Tedros reassurance that the virus can be contained, his top aides are also more skeptical.
Over the next two to six months, it could “settle down [to] an endemic pattern of transmission, into a seasonal pattern of transmission or could accelerate into a full-blown global pandemic,” the WHOs emergencies chief, Mike Ryan, said Monday. “At this point it is not possible to say which of those realities is going to happen.”
Evolving understanding
While COVID-19 isnt the flu, authorities have been relieved to discover that its also not the 2003 infection known as SARS, which killed about one in 10 people who caught it.
The initial perceptions of the new coronaviruss lethality were “skewed, because initially all that was reported were serious infections,” said David Heymann, an epidemiologist who headed the global response to SARS in 2003, now at U.K.s Chatham House think tank.
“Now its beginning to become clear that maybe up to 80 or 85 percent of infections are very mild, like the common cold,” he added.
While those who end up in hospital can have serious complications, including needing a ventilator to help breathing, most people recover. Current estimates peg the mortality rate at 1 or 2 percent, predominantly among people aged over 80 and those with other medical conditions.
The fact that people may have minimal, if any, symptoms from coronavirus is whats making it so hard to track.
“In the early stages we try containment. We see how much we can do to tamp it down,” said Tom Frieden, a former U.S. CDC head who oversaw the 2014 Ebola response, in an interview with POLITICO.
When it starts spreading too widely to contain, “then you make a decision based on risks and benefits — how deadly is it, how does it spread?” he added. “Then you have to make a call, which will be different for different places.”
A tourist wearing a protective respiratory mask tours outside the Coliseum in Rome | Andreas Solaro/AFP via Getty Images
Indeed, countries are making wildly different calls.
For example, Israels government, in a bid to stave off an outbreak beyond two likely cases, called on people to avoid travel abroad and to skip international conferences — even those held in Israel. Saudi Arabia is barring travel to Islamic holy sites, just months ahead of the annual hajj pilgrimage.
Iran, with a reported 388 cases, is closing schools, and at least seven government officials are sick — including a vice president. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe announced schools across the country are out until April as cases topped 200 on Thursday.
By contrast, EU countries health chiefs, even those from countries bordering Italy, have rejected closing the blocs open borders, saying that would be “disproportionate and ineffective” — a point underscored by the fact that Italy was one of two EU countries to bar flights to and from China.
For his part, Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio made a pitch to fearful visitors: “If our children go to school, its safe for international tourists to come visit Italy.”
While a few towns in northern Italy are on lockdown, that region holds just 0.01 percent of the population, Di Maio noted, speaking to foreign reporters Thursday.
Global economy on the brink
Chinas outbreak has peaked and is now in decline, according to the WHO. But the result was achieved with methods critics call repressive, locking down nearly 60 million people in Hubei province with potential damage to their physical and mental health.
Beyond the human rights violations, shutdowns in China — and travel restrictions imposed elsewhere — are hitting the global economy hard. The U.S. stock market is wrapping up its worst week since the 2008 financial crisis. Tech producers like Microsoft and Apple are warning about supply chain problems — and so are producers of inexpensive, essential drugs with ingredients made predominantly by China.
“Im not a health [policy expert], but Im wondering if theres a proportion between a health risk and the certainty of destroying Lombardys and Venetos economies” — Gianfranco Zoppas, entrepreneur
And an all-out health system response to one epidemic can pose problems for others. During the Ebola outbreak, Heymann noted, deaths from measles and malaria surpassed those from the hemorrhagic fever because health workers couldnt give vaccinatiRead More – Source
Coronavirus is likely coming to a respiratory tract near you. This could turn out to be a catastrophe — or an inconvenience.
The coronavirus outbreak reached a turning point this week after two straight days in which reported new cases outside China exceeded those originating from the epicenter. “Our greatest concern,” said World Health Organization boss Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Thursday, is “whats happening in the rest of the world.”
The worlds top public health authorities insist the virus can still be contained with diligent bouts of expert whack-a-mole. But political leaders are increasingly talking about an inevitable pandemic.
The growing realization that the highly contagious virus comes with few symptoms for most is creating an uncomfortable question: Do we pull out all stops to contain it — saving lives but crippling the economy — or accept this as Flu 2.0, a winter cold that irritates many but kills only a few, mainly the old and the weak?
In a speech meant to reassure the American public, U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly expressed awe at the U.S. death toll from the regular old flu: 25,000 to 69,000 a year.
“Now its beginning to become clear that maybe up to 80 or 85 percent of infections are very mild, like the common cold” — David Heymann, epidemiologist
“It was shocking to me,” Trump said.
Flu kills up to 650,000 people each year worldwide. Yet this annual scourge prompts none of the disruption of coronavirus. Along with more than 2,800 COVID-19 deaths as of Friday morning, fears about coronavirus have frozen a Chinese province of nearly 60 million; caused a historic stock market slide; and canceled carnival festivities from Brazil to Greece — and the hajj could be next.
“This virus is not influenza,” Tedros told reporters Thursday. “With the right measures, it can be contained.”
But there are increasing signs those measures are failing. German Health Minister Jens Spahn warned of an epidemic on Wednesday when he acknowledged that his country has lost track of how people got infected — making it impossible to curtail the spread with quarantines. A woman in the U.S. state of California who had no close contact with people whod traveled abroad was diagnosed on Wednesday. In Italy, which is coping with one of the worlds largest outbreaks outside China along with Iran and South Korea, officials still havent traced the “patient 0.”
An Italian Carabinieri officer, wearing a respiratory mask, talks to a driver at a road block in Guardamiglio, Italy | Emanuele Cremaschi/Getty Images
“The risk of a global pandemic is very much upon us,” said Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Thursday. French President Emmanuel Macron warned a “crisis” is coming.
Trump, by contrast, insisted the virus spread is “not inevitable.” But he was contradicting an official from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who said a day earlier that its not a question of if but when — and of how many people will have severe symptoms.
And despite Tedros reassurance that the virus can be contained, his top aides are also more skeptical.
Over the next two to six months, it could “settle down [to] an endemic pattern of transmission, into a seasonal pattern of transmission or could accelerate into a full-blown global pandemic,” the WHOs emergencies chief, Mike Ryan, said Monday. “At this point it is not possible to say which of those realities is going to happen.”
Evolving understanding
While COVID-19 isnt the flu, authorities have been relieved to discover that its also not the 2003 infection known as SARS, which killed about one in 10 people who caught it.
The initial perceptions of the new coronaviruss lethality were “skewed, because initially all that was reported were serious infections,” said David Heymann, an epidemiologist who headed the global response to SARS in 2003, now at U.K.s Chatham House think tank.
“Now its beginning to become clear that maybe up to 80 or 85 percent of infections are very mild, like the common cold,” he added.
While those who end up in hospital can have serious complications, including needing a ventilator to help breathing, most people recover. Current estimates peg the mortality rate at 1 or 2 percent, predominantly among people aged over 80 and those with other medical conditions.
The fact that people may have minimal, if any, symptoms from coronavirus is whats making it so hard to track.
“In the early stages we try containment. We see how much we can do to tamp it down,” said Tom Frieden, a former U.S. CDC head who oversaw the 2014 Ebola response, in an interview with POLITICO.
When it starts spreading too widely to contain, “then you make a decision based on risks and benefits — how deadly is it, how does it spread?” he added. “Then you have to make a call, which will be different for different places.”
A tourist wearing a protective respiratory mask tours outside the Coliseum in Rome | Andreas Solaro/AFP via Getty Images
Indeed, countries are making wildly different calls.
For example, Israels government, in a bid to stave off an outbreak beyond two likely cases, called on people to avoid travel abroad and to skip international conferences — even those held in Israel. Saudi Arabia is barring travel to Islamic holy sites, just months ahead of the annual hajj pilgrimage.
Iran, with a reported 388 cases, is closing schools, and at least seven government officials are sick — including a vice president. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe announced schools across the country are out until April as cases topped 200 on Thursday.
By contrast, EU countries health chiefs, even those from countries bordering Italy, have rejected closing the blocs open borders, saying that would be “disproportionate and ineffective” — a point underscored by the fact that Italy was one of two EU countries to bar flights to and from China.
For his part, Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio made a pitch to fearful visitors: “If our children go to school, its safe for international tourists to come visit Italy.”
While a few towns in northern Italy are on lockdown, that region holds just 0.01 percent of the population, Di Maio noted, speaking to foreign reporters Thursday.
Global economy on the brink
Chinas outbreak has peaked and is now in decline, according to the WHO. But the result was achieved with methods critics call repressive, locking down nearly 60 million people in Hubei province with potential damage to their physical and mental health.
Beyond the human rights violations, shutdowns in China — and travel restrictions imposed elsewhere — are hitting the global economy hard. The U.S. stock market is wrapping up its worst week since the 2008 financial crisis. Tech producers like Microsoft and Apple are warning about supply chain problems — and so are producers of inexpensive, essential drugs with ingredients made predominantly by China.
“Im not a health [policy expert], but Im wondering if theres a proportion between a health risk and the certainty of destroying Lombardys and Venetos economies” — Gianfranco Zoppas, entrepreneur
And an all-out health system response to one epidemic can pose problems for others. During the Ebola outbreak, Heymann noted, deaths from measles and malaria surpassed those from the hemorrhagic fever because health workers couldnt give vaccinatiRead More – Source
